QCOSTARICA — Costa Rica’s tourism sector has already faced a bleak outlook for seven consecutive months of slowdown. However, the situation could worsen if the tariffs proposed by the United States for all countries are implemented.
According to recent data from the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE), tourism has experienced seven consecutive months of contraction.
This negative trend was reflected in the first quarter of 2025, when tourist arrivals decreased by 3.8% compared to the same period last year. In March, a traditionally strong month due to the peak season, the drop was 4%.
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The situation is even more delicate when considering the differentiated impact by region.
According to figures from the Instituto Costarricense de Turismo (ICT) – Costa Rica’s tourist board, 312,844 tourists arrived by air between January and March this year, which represents almost 10,000 fewer than in 2024. North America showed a 3.3% decrease, while Europe registered a drop of 11.7%.
Vidal Villalobos, financial advisor at Grupo Financiero Prival, warns that the imposition of tariffs in the United States could worsen the situation.
“The United States is our main source market for visitors. Increasing tariffs reduces people’s availability of resources, and therefore, they will have to reduce their spending. This could lead to a reduction in trips abroad and, consequently, a decrease in the number of visits to Costa Rica,” explained the economist.
This view is shared by Melvin Garita, economist and deputy general manager of Banco Nacional, who noted that “although tourism is not directly affected by the tariffs, the loss of purchasing power of Americans, coupled with economic uncertainty, could influence the influx of tourists to the country, and consequently, the sector’s revenue.”
Adding to the international uncertainty is a low dollar exchange rate, which makes Costa Rica less competitive compared to other, more affordable options for American travelers.
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Anelena Sabater, economist and professor of Risk Management, highlights that the deterioration of confidence in the US economy is another important factor.
“US trade policy has caused a deterioration in the confidence of economic agents, and a worsening of US economic activity is anticipated. The most recent report from the International Monetary Fund forecasts that US growth will slow to 1.8%, a pace 0.9 percentage points lower than expected in January. If we already saw a 3% drop in US tourist arrivals in the first quarter, this trend is expected to continue or even worsen,” he stated.
Meanwhile, the national tourism sector remains on alert in the face of a scenario that combines external and internal factors and could lead to a prolonged “lean season” for one of the main sources of income for the Costa Rican economy.
Uncertainty
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On April 9, U.S. President Donald Trump paused his reciprocal tariffs for a period of 90 days to allow countries to negotiate with the United States government. He later indicated that some could begin paying the tariff in the coming weeks.
This has caused incredible uncertainty for businesses and consumers around the world, as tariffs on imports to the United States range from 145% for China to 10% for a country like Costa Rica.
At this time, it is unclear whether or not the protectionist measures will take effect, much less when.
Despite this, the impact is already being felt globally.
Costa Rica’s economic growth will be affected in 2025 due to the impact of tariffs and uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies, according to the most recent report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
What is the Chaves government doing to address the tariff problem?
- Creation of an inter-institutional team. A high-level working group was formed with authorities from various ministries and institutions.
- Diplomatic efforts with the US. Dialogue with North American authorities has intensified with the goal of restoring the access conditions prior to the tariff measure.
- Market diversification. Tovar emphasized that this situation reaffirms the importance of continuing to diversify export and tourism destinations.
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