QCOSTARICA — The possibility that United States President Donald Trump will impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico, Canada, and China is generating great uncertainty in the markets, and Costa Rica is no exception.
According to economist Emmanuel Agüero at an event organized by the British-Costa Rican Chamber of Commerce (BritCham) in San José, the expert noted that, “The main effect is that domestic products will increase in price, and this will reduce people’s purchasing power. This is where we must be cautious because a drop in Costa Rican exports to the United States could be reported.”
However, there are products in which Costa Rica could gain an advantage over Canada, Mexico, and China by exporting goods in which it has been very successful, such as medical devices, coffee, bananas, and pineapple.
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The impact of this measure could also be economic, but it will largely depend on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s actions. If it decides to lower interest rates, it could have a direct effect on local rates and the exchange rate.
“This year, two reductions in U.S. interest rates are expected, placing them in a range of 3.75% to 4%. However, this is conditioned by short-term inflationary risks, resulting from the impact of Donald Trump’s tariff policies on inflation expectations,” explained Agüero.
Another issue generating uncertainty is the tariff on steel and aluminum imports that President Trump intends to impose.
This could affect Costa Rica, since, although the country does not produce these materials, there would be an increase in the import costs of final products that use steel and aluminum, according to experts.
“In terms of semiconductors, there could be an impact, as the Ley de Chips y Ciencia de 2022 (Chips and Science Act of 2022) positioned Costa Rica as a key partner of the United States in strengthening its semiconductor supply chain. This is in line with its nearshoring and friendshoring strategy to reduce dependence on China. However, the imposition of tariffs could discourage investment in the sector and jeopardize the growth of a nascent industry,” the economist emphasized.
Semiconductors are essential components for smartphones, tablets, and computers, ensuring sustained long-term demand and the creation of well-paying jobs.
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Despite this outlook, the economist emphasized that Costa Rica has positive economic indicators in terms of attracting foreign direct investment, exports, and production growth.
“Furthermore, although inflation is rising, it will remain within the Central Bank’s target range, allowing people to maintain stable consumption,” he added.
This indicator has been below the Central Bank’s target for 17 consecutive months.
The event was organized by the British-Costa Rican Chamber of Commerce with the aim of providing a clear, well-founded, and strategic vision of the country’s economic future, as well as expanding knowledge of Costa Rica among its allies in Canada and the United Kingdom.
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“The Costa Rican macroeconomic context and the determining factors that will influence business, investment, and public policy decisions over the next two years were addressed at this meeting.
“Furthermore, the event included an exclusive section on the potential impact that the 2026 national elections could have on the economic environment, making it a key space for businesspeople and investors interested in understanding the direction Costa Rica could take in the short and medium term,” said José Pablo Brenes, Executive Director of the British-Costa Rican Chamber of Commerce.
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