Q24N (VOA) There are three major challenges that will mark the relations between the new US government with El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, according to analysts: immigration, drug trafficking and insecurity, and the region’s relations with China.
Of the three countries of the Northern Triangle of Central America, El Salvador and Honduras maintain diplomatic and commercial relations with China. Guatemala, for its part, does not recognize the motto of “One China” and maintains its ties with Taiwan.
Regarding migration, analysts agree that “zero tolerance” agreements are expected, since, during the first Trump administration, El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras signed pacts that required migrants to request asylum from them before doing so at the southern US border.
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Regarding drug trafficking, Guatemala and Honduras will be the main challenges, because both are considered important drug trafficking routes and because Honduras cancelled the extradition treaty with the United States two months ago. This impacts high-impact cases linked to drug activity.
El Salvador
Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele appears to be the Central American leader most interested in strengthening ties with Trump: Bukele was one of the first leaders to congratulate him on his “resounding victory,” and on “the importance of his election for the world,” he told him in a phone call.
According to experts, migration, the extradition of founding gang members of Mara Salvatrucha and relations with China will be the main points on Trump’s agenda with this country.
“The US attitude towards migrants and migration will create real personal crisis situations for many Central Americans and may also create situations in which governments in the region will receive domestic pressure to condemn the mistreatment and expulsion of their nationals,” historian Héctor Lindo Fuentes, professor emeritus at Fordham University in New York, told VOA.
Bukele has already signed a “Safe Third Country” agreement with Trump, avoiding diplomatic confrontations despite Trump’s zero-tolerance speech against illegal migration.
For international relations expert Napoleón Campos, the issue of Mara Salvatrucha could come to the table: in 2019, Trump created the Joint Task Force Vulcano whose purpose was to dismantle the structure of the MS13.
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According to Campos, Trump could now be very interested in having the 27 founding leaders of the gang, several of them in the hands of the Salvadoran government, extradited. El Salvador has opposed this since 2021.
In terms of relations with China, El Salvador is one of the countries that has made the most juicy agreements from this relationship: the construction of a stadium, a library and other minor infrastructure projects.
For Lindo Fuentes, “Central American countries have been listening to the siren song of Chinese diplomacy,” which at some point could create friction.
Guatemala
This country also accepted a “Third Safe Country” agreement with Trump in 2019, which was later questioned by human rights organizations that pointed out that it did not meet the conditions to grant asylum to migrants, like its neighbors.
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This time, the course is uncertain, according to Lindo Fuentes, since Trump’s announced measures against illegal migration generate uncertainty not only on the issue of deportations but also on the impact that these measures could have on the flow of remittances.
If agreements are not reached, “(The impact on remittances) could be significant and would create economic problems in our countries,” Lindo Fuentes added to VOA.
According to the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), in 2023 Guatemalans received US$19 billion dollars in remittances, mainly from the United States, a record figure.
“A policy favorable to the more than 10 million irregular immigrants should not be expected,” said Jaime Rivas Castillo, a specialist in human mobility issues at Don Bosco University in El Salvador.
For the analyst, it remains to be seen whether Trump manages to activate the deportation machine with enough force to expel the largest number of people.
Another key issue with this country is drug trafficking: unlike El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala have been countries identified as routes of interest for drug trafficking in America.
During the first Trump administration, the United States signed agreements to support this country economically in the fight against this crime. This time, during his campaign, Trump promised sanctions for countries that do not fight drug trafficking.
In addition, another relevant aspect, according to analysts, is that with Trump, diplomatic pressures that curbed authoritarian excesses and human rights abuses will disappear.
“This will be a particularly serious problem for Guatemala, where President Arévalo will lose important support. Even Costa Rica could see a weakening of its democratic spirit,” Lindo Fuentes added, for his part.
Honduras
Honduras has already taken a position on the guidelines of the new US administration with respect to Central America: “we have to adapt to them and be prepared to make decisions,” said Honduran Foreign Minister Enrique Reina to VOA.
The unexpected decision by Honduras to end the extradition agreement with the United States in September of this year will undoubtedly be a point to be taken up again on Trump’s agenda, the analysts interviewed agree, as this has been considered a “step backwards” in the fight against drug trafficking.
“The policy against drug trafficking has already created problems for some countries due to judicial cases against people with a high political profile, as in the case of Honduras, and it is to be expected that the trend will continue,” said Lindo Fuentes.
The end of the treaty was a surprise action by the Honduran government in response to questions from Washington’s ambassador in Tegucigalpa, Laura Dogu, about the visit of two high-ranking Honduran officials to Venezuela for a meeting with the Venezuelan defense minister, Vladimir Padrino, accused of drug trafficking in the United States.
Honduras is one of the most important drug trafficking hubs between South America and Mexico, because “all branches of government and its armed forces are riddled with corruption,” according to InSight Crime, a website that monitors crime in Latin America.
And, like its neighbors, migration will be key. Large migrant caravans have left Honduras in recent years heading toward the United States.
“I think it is feasible that they will expel some 4, 5, 6 million immigrants in the next two years, and with that show the electorate, including the Latino electorate, that they are capable and will honor what they promised,” Campos anticipated.
Translated and adapted from Voz de América
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