Q24N (Confidencial) For former guerrilla commander Dora María Téllez, the illegal arrest and rushed conviction of retired General Álvaro Baltodano—once one of Daniel Ortega’s closest political and economic allies—represents more than just a political purge. It’s proof, she says, that in today’s power structure, loyalty no longer pays.
“Being loyal to Daniel Ortega—or even to Rosario Murillo—no longer comes with any reward,” the historian said in an interview on Esta Semana, broadcast on Confidencial’s YouTube channel.
Baltodano wasn’t just any official. He was part of Daniel Ortega’s “inner, iron circle.” His downfall sends a clear message to the Sandinista leadership: “Anyone who isn’t part of the Ortega-Murillo family will end up in ‘El Chipote’ or ‘La Modelo,’ accused of anything,” warned the exiled and denationalized political prisoner Dora María Téllez.
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According to her analysis, the silence surrounding the arrests of prominent Sandinista figures can be explained by one simple reason: fear. A fear that reaches from the mid-level ranks of the FSLN all the way to the top of the military, where figures like General Julio César Avilés could be “in line” to fall next.
On Monday, June 9, 2025, retired General Álvaro Baltodano was sentenced to 20 years in prison in a secret trial held inside the prison. Does this have any impact on the leadership of the Sandinista Front and the Nicaraguan Army?
“I think it does, because the message is crystal clear: loyalty no longer pays off. Being loyal to Daniel Ortega, even to Rosario Murillo, no longer brings any reward. Years ago, loyalty paid off, but not anymore. Baltodano was part of Ortega’s innermost, iron circle, just like (Alberto) Acuña, Ortega’s head of security,” said Téllez.
The message is very clear: anyone who isn’t part of the Ortega-Murillo family will end up in El Chipote or La Modelo, accused of whatever, because the paranoia within the Ortega-Murillo circle keeps growing.
Baltodano was captured in the early hours of May 14 on his estate by a contingent of officers from the Judicial Support Directorate. Now, less than a month later, he’s been sentenced in a video-conference trial held inside prison. Is this a sign that the regime is radicalizing?
“I think it’s a total sign of weakness, actually. If they’ve started to devour their own inner circle, then the military leadership is next. I believe General Julio César Avilés could be in line—he’s been the head of the army for 15 years and has accumulated a lot of power. The same goes for the two colonel-generals (Bayardo Rodríguez and Marvin Corrales); my impression is that naming them “colonel-generals” is just a way to start clearing them out. These are people who’ve gained a lot of power—and anyone who accumulates too much power or too much information is not to Rosario Murillo’s liking. I think the military leadership is clearly next. And they’ve likely already been warned.
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Baltodano was convicted of the alleged crime of treason, with political motives attributed to his arrest. Following his detention, other former military officers were also captured, though their status remains unknown. Former council members and mayors from the CxL party were detained as well. Does this point to signs of discontent among Sandinistas with Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo?
“I believe so. Within the Sandinista Front, there is growing discontent, which is becoming more widespread. At the same time, the party’s base is significantly eroding. Among the mid-level ranks, there’s a sense that they could be imprisoned at any moment—just like dozens of government and party officials who are still being held at “El Chipote” under conditions of enforced disappearance. No one knows anything about them, and their families stay silent out of fear for their own safety.
“The Sandinista leadership is bound together by corruption, but below that level, people are afraid the rug could be pulled out from under them at any time. They know they could be dismissed, stripped of everything, or end up in prison—something that has already happened repeatedly over the past two years.
“As the regime feels increasingly weakened, this process of cannibalizing itself will only accelerate. They’re devouring their own ranks, their own circle, and in the end, the only ones left will be the Ortega-Murillo family and a small inner circle—whose identities are largely unknown—because even their most loyal followers are now falling out of favor,” concluded Téllez.
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Read the full interview at Confidencial.digital.
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