Experts project the formation of 21 tropical cyclones for this year’s hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin.This was informed by the National Meteorological Institute (IMN) and the Ministry of Environment and Energy (Minae), this Friday, in a press conference.
This period begins this Saturday, June 1 and extends until November 30. It includes the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean.The IMN forecasts between 18 and 21 weather systems. Of these, between 7 and 8 could develop into tropical storms and become category 1 or 2 hurricanes.Another 4 or 5 systems are likely to develop into category 3, 4 or 5 hurricanes.
The first tropical cyclone will be named Alberto and, according to IMN estimates, could form in July.The season will culminate with Tropical Cyclone William.
Current Rainfall
According to the IMN, rainy conditions are defined throughout the country. The accumulated has registered the average value in the Pacific and Central Valley for the month of May.
These estimates are made by experts in Costa Rica based on the SAT-ENOS. This indicates the end of the El Niño phenomenon (dry season) and the beginning of La Niña (rainy season).
Eladio Solano, head of forecasts of the IMN, explained that the increase of temperature in the Caribbean Sea and the entrance of La Nina favor the formation of phenomena such as tropical cyclones.
Above normal temperatures
As of May 30, 2023, temperatures in the Caribbean Sea were above normal. Figures that increased for this year. “A warm Caribbean Sea will generate fuel for tropical cyclones and generate rainfall in the national territory,” added the expert.
The IMN foresees the consolidation of La Niña from July until the rest of the year, with an increase in downpours.In 2023, the effects of tropical cyclones were minimal for the national territory, however the effects of the current season cannot be predicted.
“Normally three are formed in the Caribbean and there is a possibility that we will have affectation from cyclones that develop near the Caribbean,” explained Daniel Poleo, from the Climatology Unit of the National Meteorological Institute (IMN), weeks ago.
“However, for now we don’t know the exact number of those that will affect us, those will be seen as the season progresses”, he mentioned.At international level, experts share the forecast of an increase in natural phenomena and their intensity for the second half of the year.
Recommendations
In view of the rainy conditions in the country, the National Emergency Commission (CNE) makes a call to redouble protection measures. “We have worked on early warning systems, with the IMN and it is important to follow the IMN communication channels and the channels of the direct response programs.” said Walter Fonseca, of the CNE.“It is very important to strengthen early warning systems in the country’s watersheds. This allows us to alert the population in time,” he added.
To date, the CNE has issued six weather warnings. The last one was issued last Tuesday with the declaration of a Green Alert for the entire national territory due to tropical wave 4.
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