Q COSTARICA — Population projections already estimated that Costa Rica will never reach 6 million inhabitants, but rather, that the population will gradually decline.
The starting point, as revealed by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC) on Monday, already has a date: 2044 will be the date when “the national population begins to decline.”
The analysis is now divided at the cantonal level, and practically half of the localities have activated the demographic alert.
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This is because it is expected that by 2044, 41 cantons will already have a declining population. That same year, three more municipalities would join the list. In contrast, only 21 cantons are expected to add more residents in the coming decades.
Which points are worth noting?
The INEC’s numerical review is already focusing on various cantons based on the demographic scenarios they are painting.
They highlight:
- Montes de Oca (San Pedro) is already the canton with the highest aging rate: for every 100 people under the age of 15, there are 121.5 aged 65 and over in 2025. By 2050, this ratio is projected to triple, reaching 399.7.
- Sarapiquí is the canton with the lowest aging rate by 2025. It has 23.7 people aged 65 and over for every 100 people under the age of 15. By 2050, this ratio will triple to 71.5.
Corredores, Matina, and Naranjo will be the cantons with the highest decline in the population by 2044, when the decline becomes official nationwide. - Los Chiles is the canton with the highest demographic dependency ratio for people under 15 years of age compared to people aged 15 to 64. Currently, the indicator is 43.4. The ratio decreases to 27.8 children under 15 years of age per 100 people aged 15 to 64 by 2050.
- San Mateo has the highest adult demographic dependency ratio. There are now 22.5 people aged 65 and over per 100 people aged 15 to 64.
- Tibás will continue to be the most densely populated canton. Currently, it has 10,338 people per habitable square kilometer, and by 2050, the number will be 10,203.
- Osa is and will remain the least densely populated canton. In 2025, the population rate is 15.3 per habitable square kilometer, and it will be 14.0 by 2050.
These trends are likely to shake up which areas have the biggest and smallest populations. Right now, in 2025, San José—the capital—has the largest population, with Alajuela and Desamparados coming next. But by 2050, Alajuela is expected to overtake San José as the most populated canton.
Why is Costa Rica’s population rising or falling?
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The INEC explains that various sociopolitical variables are at the heart of its conclusions.
“They are based on the observed behavior of indicators of the components of demographic change: fertility, mortality, and migration across different geographic units, districts, cantons, provinces, and regions, disaggregated by sex and age,” they note.
They also explain that aspects such as life expectancy at birth and the changes brought about by the pandemic are taken into account.
“When comparing life expectancy at birth in 2019 (the year before the pandemic) with 2021 (the year of the pandemic’s greatest impact), Guanacaste was the province with the greatest loss of life expectancy at birth: 3.8 years; while Cartago had the lowest loss, at 2.3 years,” they explain.
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“This impact was differential by sex; the male population, in general, was the most affected,” they add.
According to the INEC, the projections should be used to plan regionalization and the services that the population will demand.
Transparency Note: This article was written with the help of artificial intelligence tools to process available information. The content is based on verifiable sources and has been reviewed for accuracy and clarity.
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