Q COSTARICA — Costa Rica’s economy will slow its growth in the second half of the year, although the outlook will remain favorable.
For the remainder of 2025, the international context will remain uncertain, characterized by geopolitical risks and possible tariff increases between the United States and other countries. Both elements have the potential to generate complex scenarios for international trade, supply chains, and the prices of key raw materials, such as oil.
For the Costa Rican economy, the presence of these risks will imply a lower performance than expected. However, the outlook will remain favorable from the perspective of the country’s domestic conditions, namely, income growth, consumption, and investment, although with moderate gains in terms of job creation.
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“At the international level, tariff and geopolitical threats point to a complex development for the remainder of 2025. Costa Rica, of course, is no stranger to this reality, and the economy will lose momentum in the second half of this year. However, domestic conditions in terms of income and consumption growth can still be considered favorable,” said Javier Cortés, supervisor of BN Valores Stock Exchange.
Main considerations for the remainder of 2025:
- Economic growth: the slowdown will be more pronounced for exports of goods and services, while domestic demand will remain more stable.
- Controlled inflation and stable interest rates: Inflation will remain within parameters acceptable to the Central Bank, which will likely imply stability for interest rates in colones and other indicators such as the Passive Base Rate (TBP).
- Stable fiscal performance: The government’s financial deficit and public debt will be similar compared to 2024, which will contribute to the stability of other factors such as interest rates and the exchange rate.
- Exchange rate: Foreign currency inflows into the country will moderate as export growth and other financial flows such as foreign investment slow; however, no marked upward movements in the dollar’s price are expected.
“It is important to keep in mind that the external economic environment is fragile, and changes that affect international trade, supply chains, or oil prices could impact key elements of the Costa Rican economy, such as inflation, the exchange rate, and economic growth looking ahead to 2026,” Cortés added.
If the international landscape shifts toward more complex scenarios, the outlook for the Costa Rican economy could be jeopardized. However, the possibility of a 2025 with still stable internal conditions seems plausible at this point in the year.
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