Q COSTARICA (EFE) Almost six months after the United States implemented the 10% universal tariff (15% in Costa Rica and 18% in Nicaragua), exports from Central America and the Dominican Republic to the United States, its main trading partner, continue an upward trend driven by rising international prices and uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.
In the first half of 2025, exports from the region comprised of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and the Dominican Republic “grew by around 10.0%,” according to an analysis by the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI) sent to EFE.
This growth was driven “by rising international prices, and possibly benefited by the front-loading effect, which led US companies to advance their purchases abroad in anticipation of the implementation of the new tariffs scheduled for April” of this year, the regional bank explains.
Since last April, the administration of US President Donald Trump has applied a universal 10% tariff on imports from his country, amid a trade war that is the battering ram of a policy intended to give a renewed boost to US industry.
In Central America, this tariff is applied differently to Costa Rica, with a 15% tariff since last August, and to Nicaragua, with an 18% tariff since last April.
The CABEI notes that “this scenario of higher taxes on imports generates a growing risk given signs of a slowdown in the US economy and greater uncertainty about US economic policy.”
“Analyses conducted by the CABEI indicate that the increase in tariffs could negatively affect the regional economy” given the “high trade dependence on the US, the region’s main partner,” the financial institution states.
In Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic, more than 45% of total exports are directed to the US market, it states.
Sales from the Central American region to the United States “represent approximately 40% of total exports” and have shown an upward trend over the last quarter of a century, a period during which they have “doubled, registering an average annual growth of 3.4%,” it details.
According to data from the Central American Trade Statistics System of the Secretariat for Central American Economic Integration (SIECA), the region’s exports to the United States have grown steadily in recent years, totaling US$11 billion in 2020; US$13.5 billion in 2021; $15, billion in 2022; $16 billion in 2023, and $17.35 billion in 2024.
In this scenario, “the future of the export sector will depend on each country’s ability to adapt. In the short term, there could be closures of less competitive companies and a drop in investment in the tradable sector, especially in activities such as textiles and apparel, food, and agriculture,” states CABEI.
However, it explains, the impact on productive sectors is uncertain, as other economies around the world face tariffs even higher than those applied in most countries in the region.
“In this context, strengthening economic resilience, improving competitiveness, and fostering regional integration will be key for the sector to take advantage of new opportunities and maintain its dynamism,” the financial institution emphasizes.
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