Q 24N — The future of Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro is in the balance as his trial for masterminding a conspiracy to stay in power enters its final stage today. The country is bracing for unrest during the trial.
A Supreme Court panel has scheduled sessions from September 2-12 to decide whether the populist ex-leader is guilty of seeking to overturn the result of the 2022 presidential election, which he lost to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
Bolsonaro, who is 70, was charged with five counts related to attempting to stage a coup d’etat. He denies any wrongdoing and is currently under house arrest, with 24-hour police surveillance, wears an electronic anklet, is banned from using social media.
That argument resonated with U.S. President Donald Trump, who slapped a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports and linked that to Bolsonaro’s trial, calling it a “witch hunt” against a political opponent.
A five-justice panel at the Supreme Court is hearing the case, which is against Bolsonaro and seven of his allies.
Justice Alexandre de Moraes — whom Bolsonaro and his allies accuse of driving the trial against the former president — is leading the case. Others on the judges’ panel include Cristiano Zanin, a former attorney for President Lula, and Flavio Dino, Lula’s former justice minister.
Two Supreme Court justices appointed by Bolsonaro as president are not on the panel.
Brazil’s justice can be swift. After Moraes’ deliberations, the prosecutor general is expected to read out the charges. After that, lawyers for the defendant(s) deliver their statement.
In theory, if the justices move directly to vote after closing arguments, and a majority is reached, the defendant can be convicted the same day.
In practice, however, Supreme Court trials often get delayed by suspended proceedings, sometimes for months. Bolsonaro’s lawyers are widely expected to raise procedural questions, file motions and highlight “new evidence” in the hopes of stretching out the case.
A guilty verdict on the coup plot charge alone carries a sentence of up to 12 years. The evidence is overwhelming: videos, messages, digital traces, escape plans, and an asylum request in Argentina.
The prosecution has argued that the riot on January 8, 2023, when Bolsonaro supporters ransacked top government buildings a week after Lula took office, was an attempt by Bolsonaro’s camp to force military intervention and oust the new president.
The prosecution has also accused Bolsonaro’s aides of planning to assassinate Lula before his swearing-in. Investigators say the evidence shows the former president approved the plan.
Brazil’s top electoral court has already banned Bolsonaro from running in elections until 2030 over abuse of power while in office, and for casting doubts on the country’s electronic voting system.
While Bolsonaro has denied making any attempt to overthrow Brazil’s democracy, he acknowledged at a deposition that he took part in meetings looking for ways to reverse the outcome of the 2022 election.
For his part, Bolsonaro has expressed his intention to run for president in 2026.
What would happen if Bolsonaro were convicted? While the maximum combined sentence for the crimes Bolsonaro is accused of could exceed 40 years, lawyers anticipate a shorter term, noting that 40 years is Brazil’s maximum allowable prison sentence.
Why is this trial significant? Some Brazilian commentators have labelled Bolsonaro’s trial as “historic” by noting that it’s the first time high-ranking officials accused of an attempted coup are being subjected to a criminal trial.
A military dictatorship seized power for more than 20 years until 1985, after armed forces, backed by conservative elites, overthrew the elected President Joao Goulart in 1964. In spite of human rights abuses, Bolsonaro has expressed nostalgia for Brazil’s military rule.
In 1979, the government passed the Amnesty Law — and as a result, Brazil never prosecuted any of the military officials responsible for the widespread rights violations during that era.
To Bolsonaro and his supporters, the charges against him amount to political persecution, aimed at thwarting his political comeback in next year’s presidential election.
Is United States President Donald Trump involved in the trial?
On August 1, Trump slapped Brazil with a 50 % US tariff, citing the charges against Bolsonaro, who was an ally of Trump’s, as politically motivated.
In a July letter to Brazil’s current President Lula, Trump said that Brazil’s treatment of Bolsonaro “is an international disgrace”.
He said that his justification for the sky-high tariff was “due in part to Brazil’s insidious attacks on Free Elections, and the fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans”.
“Please understand that the 50 percent number is far less than what is needed to have the Level Playing Field we must have with your Country,” the U.S. president said.
He added that “the way that Brazil has treated former President Bolsonaro, a Highly Respected Leader throughout the World during his term, including by the United States, is an international disgrace”.
The Trump administration has also sanctioned De Moraes as he presides over the case against Bolsonaro, prompting De Moraes to say the court will also not bow to “internal or external threats and coercion” and will stand “absolutely inflexible in defending national sovereignty.”
Trump, who also falsely claimed he had beaten Joe Biden in the 2020 U.S. presidential race, had faced criminal charges related to seeking to overturn that election.
His supporters also stormed the U.S. Capitol before Biden took office, seeking to stop the certification of the election results. Many experts believe the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol served as the inspiration for the 2023 riot in Brazil by Bolsonaro supporters.
Trump has highlighted what he regards as parallels between himself and Bolsonaro. Earlier this year, he wrote on social media that he empathised with what was happening to Bolsonaro and claimed, “It happened to me, times 10.”
The world is watching closely
The Economist dedicated its cover to Brazil as an example of democratic resistance. Steven Levitsky, author of How Democracies Die, said that Trump’s interference is more arrogant than Washington’s operations in the Cold War.
The data speaks volumes: the Democracy Report 2024 revealed that there are now more autocracies (99) than democracies (88). Barely 12% of the world’s population lives in full democracies. Brazil, however, is one of the few countries that has improved its democratic quality. Meanwhile, the U.Ss is deteriorating: Staffan Lindberg, director of V-Dem, claims it can now be classified as an “electoral autocracy.”
Within Brazil, the Bolsonaro family is in free fall: only 28% of the population supports them (Quaest data). Lula, on the other hand, is gaining strength and is now the undisputed favorite for the 2026 presidential election.
Bolsonaro symbolizes a broken caudillismo, authoritarianism reduced to an electronic anklet.
And Brazil is sending a message to the world: democracy is not defended with speeches, it is defended with trials.
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