In the study “NextGen Travelers and Destinations: Our Vision on the Transformation of the Tourism Sector” conducted by Google and Deloitte, the evolution and projections of the tourism sector at a global level are analyzed. Until 2019, the tourism sector grew rapidly, doubling the number of global arrivals approximately every 15 years. However, the Covid-19 pandemic slowed this growth. Despite global tourism recovering to 86% in 2023 compared to 2019 levels, this improvement has been uneven across different regions.
The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, which accounted for approximately 30% of international travelers in 2019, only recovered to 50%. This has mainly affected Europe and the Middle East, regions that received about 20% of the tourism from APAC. Despite European countries remaining the main source markets, in the last 10 years the growth of Africa and APAC has surpassed the average, even outpacing Europe.
China on top
China has stood out particularly, reaching the number one position in the source markets in 2019 and joining the top five along with the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Russia. When analyzing the evolution of departures from the main source markets, four distinct patterns are identified: newcomers, enthusiasts, experienced, and super experienced. These patterns are defined by sociodemographic characteristics and behavioral factors such as age, middle-class population, per capita income, and the domestic market, as well as behavioral factors like tourist flows, intermediaries and online quotas, distance, and budget.
Regarding distant destinations, longer planning times are due to the greater complexity and duration of the stays. The behaviors observed in international travel in 2023 include: dreamed and planned (planning time), the journey to the destination (flights, train, bus, and vehicle rental), and the stay (length of stay, hotel, accommodation rental, and hostel).
From the perspective of destinations, European countries lead, although in the last 10 years the growth of APAC and South America has surpassed the average. The top-5 destinations remain, except for the United Kingdom, but there is fragmentation with APAC countries climbing positions and countries below the top-15 increasing their share.
The competitiveness analysis of the most prominent destinations regarding total arrivals and market share evolution shows three groups: expanding destinations (Japan, Greece, Thailand, Mexico, Hungary, Poland, and others), key destinations (Turkey and Spain), and consolidated destinations. (Italia, Estados Unidos, China, Francia, Reino Unido, Rusia, Alemania, Austria y otros).
We are immersed in an economic, social, and technological transition that will create a new framework where transformation will be fundamental for future success. Factors such as exponential technology, the changing traveler, social and cultural movements, business transformation, climate change, and economy, politics, and power will influence this transformation.
Our vision for 2040 is based on predictive models that incorporate a series of variables with a great capacity to explain tourism flows, both in departures (sociodemographic factors) and arrivals. (capacidad, atractivos como destinos y total de mercado direccionable). It is anticipated that by 2040, the number of trips worldwide will increase to approximately 2.4 billion, an increase of 936 million compared to 2019.
Highest annual growth projections
Africa and America have the highest annual growth rate projected for departures between 2019 and 2040, although Europe and APAC will continue to represent approximately 75%. It is expected that the main source markets will gain a larger share of the global tourism market and that their travel frequency will increase by between 20% and 45%.
The vision for 2040 has strategic implications in three main levers: markets, business models, and mechanics. Travel operators must adapt to three trends: the emergence of new source markets, the rise of new technologies, and the increase in ESG requirements. (siglas que responden a las palabras Enviromental, Social y Governance).
The market lever focuses on aspects of what is sold, to whom, and how value is created, the transformation of tourist flows, the digital and hybrid tsunami, and corporate responsibility as an imperative, promoting sustainable tourism models and greater environmental and social awareness.
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