Q24N — Peruvian journalist, writer, journalist, and television personality, Jaime Bayly claims that Nicolás Maduro is preparing to flee to Nicaragua with his family and sending gold bars, euros, and dollars on the presidential plane that recently visited Nicaragua.
The statements by Bayly sparked reactions Fromm Nicaraguan opponents, who agree that, far from dismissing it as frivolous speculation, Managua represents a logical destination for Chavismo in the event of a political collapse in Caracas.
Alex Aguirre, founder and associate researcher of the Institute for Peace and Development (Ipades), the Youth Network of the Americas, responded bluntly to Bayly’s version.
“Do I think it’s possible that Nicolás Maduro is considering taking refuge in Nicaragua? Not only do I think it’s possible, I consider it a desperate move, and I think it’s already underway,” he stated.
According to his analysis, the recent flights between Maiquetía (Venezuela) and Managua (Nicaragua) with shipments of gold and cash are proof that the Venezuelan president is extracting resources as if sensing imminent disaster.
Aguirre was even more blunt when warning of the risks Maduro runs if he places himself under Rosario Murillo’s protection.
“In Nicaragua, political asylum comes with hidden clauses and sharp teeth. Murillo is capable of making it disappear and inheriting those ingots, as happened with former Salvadoran President Mauricio Funes, who died conveniently and left his fortune in the hands of his hosts,” he recalled.
The expert warned that for Nicaraguans, a possible refuge for Maduro would not be a gesture of revolutionary solidarity, but rather a political and financial transaction: “If he believes Rosario Murillo is his lifeline, he is more lost than ever.”
US: A Scenario for Deterrence and Surgical Operations
Political scientist and former political prisoner Félix Maradiaga placed the discussion within a broader geopolitical framework: the growing US military deployment in the Caribbean.
“In recent days, we have heard a hardening of Washington’s rhetoric. This is not mere symbolism: the bounty on Maduro has doubled, and the presence of naval destroyers, maritime patrol aircraft, and amphibious groups in nearby waters has increased. We are not talking about an occupation device, but rather a military siege designed to deter, block drug trafficking routes, and carry out surgical actions,” he explained.
For Maradiaga, the likelihood of a large-scale intervention remains moderate, but the feasibility of targeted operations is growing. “Most likely, we will see specific actions, external support for an internal military split, or even the arrest of Maduro if a Venezuelan officer decides to collect the reward. In that context, seeking refuge in Nicaragua is a Plan B, but increasingly risky,” he indicated.
The analyst emphasized that the ideological alliance between Ortega/Murillo and Maduro does not guarantee absolute security. “The United States has put its radar on Managua. Becoming a sanctuary for a drug lord and a dictator accused of crimes against humanity would be another gravestone for the Nicaraguan dictatorship.”
Nicaragua, a refuge for fugitives and dictators
Opposition figure and former political prisoner Juan Sebastián Chamorro, a pre-candidate for president in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election until he was detained in a wave of arrests of opposition candidates and other civic leaders, and nephew of Violeta Barrios de Chamorro, president of Nicaragua from 1990-1197, provided a historical perspective.
In his opinion, it would not be the first time that Nicaragua has become a refuge for figures accused of corruption or serious crimes.
“Dictators close to Ortega, like Salvadoran Sánchez Cerén, found cover here. There were even attempts to protect former Panamanian President Ricardo Martinelli. In Managua, every movement is monitored, but guests receive protection upon payment,” he recalled.
Chamorro also highlighted a technical detail: suspicious flights between Caracas and Managua have taken unconventional routes. “They avoid Central American airspace and enter through Honduras toward Managua. These movements indicate that something is being transported, whether goods or people. These planes are traveling loaded, and the route is unusual. This raises additional suspicions.”
The opposition leader warns that the Sandinista dictatorship has been characterized by selling national sovereignty to the highest bidder: “We are not talking about legends, but about documented realities since the 1980s, when drug traffickers like Pablo Escobar found refuge on Nicaraguan soil.”
Experts agree that Nicaragua could offer Maduro ideological refuge and immediate protection, but they also warn that the country has become a mercenary territory where loyalty is bought and sold.
For Aguirre, Murillo is not offering free lodging. For Maradiaga, asylum would turn Managua into a military and diplomatic target. For Chamorro, it would be a repetition of the historical pattern of sheltering criminals and fugitives.
In conclusion, Nicolás Maduro’s possible escape to Nicaragua is not a far-fetched idea, but it is a plan fraught with uncertainty.
As Félix Maradiaga summarizes: “The probability of a large-scale intervention is medium, but the viability of specific actions is growing. In that scenario, it is increasingly difficult for Maduro to find the lifeline he seeks in Managua.”
The article was translated and adapted from 100% Noticias. Read the original in Spanish here.
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