Q24n (EFE) Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections has set off alarm bells in Latin America, a region that anticipates drastic changes in bilateral relations, trade, immigration policy and security.
Countries such as Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Cuba, Colombia and El Salvador are preparing to face possible economic and political repercussions that could reconfigure their relationship with Washington and modify the regional panorama.
Trump’s victory has been received with cautious optimism in Mexico, where businessmen and analysts see opportunities to strengthen the economic relationship. President Claudia Sheinbaum expressed her confidence in maintaining a respectful and cooperative relationship with the US.
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Despite Trump’s protectionist policies in his first term, analysts consider that the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) remains a solid framework that provides stability and opportunities in the long term.
Gabriela Siller, from Banco Base, highlights the potential for growth in exports and the relocation of companies due to the trade war between the US and China, while Julio Carranza, from the Association of Banks of Mexico, estimates that the trade relationship will not only be maintained, but will be strengthened, with Mexico being a key partner in the T-MEC.
Political friction with Mexico
However, friction is anticipated in the political sphere. Martha Bárcena, former ambassador to Washington, warned that the relationship between the two countries is like a “marriage with no option for divorce,” with historical ties that endure despite the differences. Some of Trump’s promises, such as the closing of borders and raids, could affect Mexico, she believes.
Meanwhile, the markets are reacting in a less volatile way compared to 2016, which is attributed to an adaptation to his style of government and the protection offered by the T-MEC, considers Janneth Quiroz, from Grupo Financiero Monex.
A few hours after Trump’s victory was confirmed, presidents, former presidents and Latin American leaders offered their support to strengthen the region’s political and commercial ties with the United States.
One of the first to congratulate him was the Argentine president, Javier Milei, who told him through the social network X (formerly Twitter): “you can count on Argentina to carry out your task.” The ultra-liberal ruler praised the Republican’s “formidable electoral victory” and added: “Now, Make America Great Again.”
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Trump, Milei’s “Republican colleague”
In addition, Milei has announced that he will travel to the United States to meet with his “Republican colleague.”
Trump’s victory practically coincided with the dismissal of the Argentine Foreign Minister, Diana Mondino, after her decision to vote in favor of lifting sanctions against Cuba at the United Nations. This fact shows what Milei’s international vision is, who considers the United States and Israel to be priorities, “according to the president himself.”
Milei appointed Gerardo Werthein, a millionaire businessman and Jew with no diplomatic experience, to the post. The Argentine president is expected to announce the ambassador to Washington during his meeting with Trump. Some analysts suggest that it could be a close associate of both Milei and Trump from the business world.
Bolsonaro, exultant with the victory
Donald Trump’s victory has been celebrated in Brazil by the allies of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who believe that this triumph strengthens the forces opposed to the Government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with a view to the 2026 elections.
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Although Bolsonaro has been legally disqualified for a few years due to problems with justice, his supporters believe that the new scenario could put pressure on Congress and the Supreme Court to grant him amnesty or annul the sanctions against him.
“Trump’s victory activates the imagination that Bolsonaro can also return,” said his son, Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro.
In economic terms, Brazil faces potential challenges if Trump follows through on his promises to raise tariffs and adopt protectionist policies.
Analysts predict that the country could experience a drop in its exports to the United States and a lower value for its raw materials. In addition, the closure of borders to Chinese products by the United States could reduce demand for Brazilian raw materials, affecting its main commercial market.
Regarding the environment, Brazil’s Environment Minister Marina Silva warned that the international community, including Brazil, will have to “work twice as hard” to mitigate the effects of the climate crisis in the event of possible setbacks in environmental policies by Trump.
Maduro is confident of a win-win relationship
In Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, who considered Trump his worst enemy during his first presidency (2017-2021), sees the return to power of the Republican as “a new beginning” for a win-win relationship between Caracas and Washington, which have not maintained official bilateral ties since 2019.
Trump imposed more than a hundred sanctions on Venezuela and sees the easing of these restrictions by the Joe Biden government as a mistake, but it is not clear what his position will be now in relation to Venezuela, a country that can meet the energy needs of the US, especially in an adverse context due to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Furthermore, if in the past Trump has already called the Venezuelan a “dictator”, it remains to be seen how he will perceive Maduro after the elections of July 28, in which the Chavista leader was proclaimed the winner by the National Electoral Council (CNE), a result considered fraudulent by the majority opposition and not recognized by the US or many other countries.
Cuba fears a new twist
Cuba fears that a second term for Trump in the White House would mean a new twist in Washington’s sanctions regime against the island.
In his first four years as president, Trump approved more than 240 measures against the socialist neighbor and included it in the list of countries that sponsor terrorism, which greatly hinders the Cuban State’s financial operations abroad.
The former Cuban ambassador to the United States José Ramón Cabañas tells EFE that for Havana it was not important which candidate won the elections, because the foreign policy of both was similar.
Cuba is “used to navigating turbulent waters,” says the diplomat, now director of the Higher Institute of International Relations (ISRI). But the truth is that 48 hours after the elections, the Cuban government has not yet reacted publicly.
Anti-drug collaboration, essential for Colombia
The Colombian government is confident that the close relationship with the United States, based on collaboration against drug trafficking, will be maintained under the second Trump administration.
Although differences may arise, “it is important to find a common ground” on the issue of drug policy, considers the Colombian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Luis Gilberto Murillo.
Trump “will pay greater attention to issues related to security, migration and trade,” in contrast to the government of Joe Biden, estimates María Claudia Lacouture, president of AmCham Colombia.
Although the “America First” policies protect critical industries for the US, Colombia is not vulnerable to these measures due to its low dependence on imports of sensitive goods, adds this analyst.
El Salvador fears mass deportations
El Salvador is on edge regarding the immigration issue due to the threat of mass deportations of Salvadorans, one of Donald Trump’s proposals. Millions of Salvadorans live in the United States illegally, but they are the main economic support for their families in El Salvador.
Remittances from the United States represent the country’s main economic engine. In the period from January to July 2024, El Salvador received 4.756 billion dollars in remittances, a year-on-year increase of less than 1% compared to the same period in 2023.
However, President Nayib Bukele maintains a close relationship with Trump, as evidenced during the former president’s first administration, where both governments had good relations without tensions.
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